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Ouch. On one hand, Australia's protracted campaign to host the UN climate conference next year has ended in clear failure.

The effort ran for more than three years for the rights to host the world's biggest environmental conference and green trade fair, which would have attracted many thousands of delegates to the city of Adelaide next fall.

That's not happening. Instead, the conference known as Cop31 is headed to the resort city of Antalya, on the Turkish Mediterranean.

Disappointment and Mixed Messages

The result will be a significant disappointment to many people who had believed organizing the climate carnival could help accelerate Australia's shift from being a fossil fuel economy to a renewable energy superpower, and bring international focus to the survival crisis facing island countries in the Pacific, who would have been co-hosts.

The procedure that led to failure has been an unclear situation. In recent days, there have been questions that the prime minister and other high-ranking officials really wanted the bid to succeed. The prime minister's language were ambiguous at best. This led to reports in the Australian and international media saying the administration was walking away.

This contrasted with the message being conveyed at the Cop30 talks in the Brazilian city, where the environment minister, the climate minister, had just stated the country was "in it to win it".

Uncertain support is a recurring problem for Australia's Cop31 bid. While Bowen championed it, other high-level figures of the government have only sometimes appeared to care.

The Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade, traditionally responsible for international climate negotiations, has been disengaged and at times completely against.

Evidence suggests the prime minister has considered UN climate conferences a priority. He hasn't attended one since taking office in 2022. It's uncertain, but many may question if more could have been done to get the bid over the line.

A Different Perspective

That's one interpretation. But there is another way to look at it.

In the context the Cop30 talks this week in Brazil – and from an global viewpoint – the announcement on this week may, ironically, have been the most favorable outcome possible.

The minister outlined on Wednesday an novel agreement that he was working on with his colleague from Turkey, Murat Kurum. The Turkish government would be the Cop president, organizer and effective event manager, and Australia – the climate minister – would take on the position as "president of negotiations", managing almost all nations on the matters that the countries actually attend for – the discussions on how to together address the environmental emergency.

There would also be a increased emphasis on the Pacific, including a lead-up event on an island nation.

Grounds for Scepticism

Multiple reasons exist for scepticism. The two nations do not have a close relationship. Specific aspects of the deal had not been completed at the moment of announcement. The entire arrangement could collapse before it begins.

But it could also be a way to recover value from what appeared to be an impending disaster for the multilateral work on climate change.

The Turkish government is generally viewed in the global community as having been hellbent on causing havoc in the UN climate process. This framework is designed to operate by unanimous agreement. Usually, that means if there are multiple countries in the race those with weaker backing either bow out voluntarily, or a compromise is privately arranged to encourage them to exit the race.

Turkey clearly had less support than the joint Pacific proposal to host Cop31. At least 24 of the 28 nations responsible for nominating next year's venue had backed the southern pitch.

But, uniquely, Turkey declined to withdraw. The term "bastardry" has been thrown around in the past week, and not only by local commentators.

Geopolitical Context

Turkey's obstinacy can be interpreted as a reflection of the fracturing geopolitical climate. Without US participation under the former president, there has been no major power with the influence to confront the petroleum exporters that offered the Turkish government with certain protection.

The Turkish president is considered aligned with Vladimir Putin. Several nations feared a summit hindered from the top if his administration led the negotiations. Germany did not want to have to host an unprepared climate conference at the UN environmental office in Bonn, which is what would have happened under international regulations if the stalemate wasn't broken.

A Creative Solution

A resolution was needed. The UN system is flawed and often disconcerting to watch, but global cooperation has demonstrably made a difference in the battle with climate change. This joint approach is a innovative solution that keeps that going when it is needed more than ever.

Despite reasonable concerns of the Australian government over its contradictory stance for expanding carbon-based exports, climate activists who attend UN conferences see the minister as a positive influence in the talks. He has been requested to lead discussion groups at multiple summits he has attended.

This is significant. Although certain critics have downplayed the role of a "president of negotiations", experts from academic institutions and veteran observers at environmental negotiations assert it is crucial to their success.

"Every successful Cop has been shaped by a leader holding the pen who can listen, forge agreement and deliver an ambitious outcome. This occurred in Berlin in 1995, in the Mexican resort in 2010 and Paris in 2015. We saw the opposite in Copenhagen in 2009," they note. "This position is critical at the conference except for making sure that delegates are fed."

Remaining Concerns

There are plenty of unresolved issues. As an illustration, civil society plays a vital role at climate conferences. What, if anything, can the federal administration do to prevent a crackdown on NGO participation by the host government?

Possibly little. But that doesn't stop this arrangement looking like the best chance possible to have a conference that may offer something for the Pacific, Australia and the world. This attempt is justified.