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Usually, the NFL's Head Coach of the Year award follows a simple script. It commonly functions as a form of apology. We regret we misjudged your team in our preseason projections.

On paper, it's a direct line: the skipper who engineered the most dramatic resurgence receives the prize. In reality, it fuels an annual argument about preseason outlooks and whether we're genuinely rewarding superior coaching or just the greatest shock.

Yet the latest competition is distinctly different. The list of candidates is unusually deep. It has been the year of comebacks. The NFL has been chaotic, with reigning conference winners declining and recent strugglers improving in unison. In an ordinary season, a coach guiding the Denver Broncos to the summit of the AFC would make him the clear front-runner. Yet in such a turbulent and entertaining season, he's facing multiple other elite coaches.

Below is how the ideal vote could be structured.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, Chicago Bears, 11-5

Coach of the Year voters adore quarterbacks. This is a tradition. Sean McVay in 2017. Another in 2020. A third in 2022. If you transform a quarterback, you're well on your way home.

The Bears' head coach not only fixed Caleb Williams; he's unleashed him. Within an ideal system, Williams has been given the opportunity to demonstrate his special ability. Since Week 9, the Bears sit at fourth in offensive EPA per play. That's not a hot streak – it's consistent excellence. With his guidance, the quarterback has become increasingly decisive, far less reckless, and has willingly surrendered to the system instead of improvising. It is an offense built solely in the coach's vision: a bully-ball ground attack, a steady dose of play-action and a innovative aerial game that frees wide receiver receivers all over the field. The QB has capitalized. And when openings haven't been there, he's been able to conjure big plays from broken plays.

The coach arrived to the Bears with a defined offensive philosophy. Virtually each decision – overhauling the offensive line, utilizing the tight ends, transforming the QB into a rhythm passer – has succeeded. That's uncommon for a rookie head coach. And it's even more uncommon yet for a leader who entered the building with the level of hype Johnson did. For two straight cycles, he was the hottest candidate on the coaching market. However when it comes to selecting a leader, there are no guarantees. Somehow, he has lived up to expectations – and even exceeded them. He's proven not only to be a offensive dork but the type of culture builder that can breathe new life into an franchise.

During a typical year, he would be the overwhelming favorite. But the current is not a normal year!

The area where his candidacy runs slightly unstuck is on defense. The Chicago defense currently rank 25th in defensive success rate. They are living on turnovers, and takeaways are notoriously unreliable. Coaches can stress creating turnovers, but no one can guarantee it. He is on the ballot because the offensive production is real. He's ranked lower because variance is doing too much of the defense's work. With a couple breaks of the ball, the team would be several wins worse off. It's been an remarkable transformation, and the core is in place for sustained winning. But Johnson falls just short in this ranking.

4) Liam Coen, Jacksonville Jaguars, 12-4

Coen is in a similar position to Johnson. He's another first-time head coach who has orchestrated a dramatic turnaround. Over the stretch run of the year, he has his franchise quarterback playing the finest all-around football of his professional life. And he's also spearheaded the overhaul of a defense that now sits at fifth in the league in Expected Points Added per play.

What's more impressively, Coen has excelled at the leadership stuff, which was not a guarantee following his initial press conference introduction and some of his offseason moves.

Coen took over Jacksonville with an uncommonly raw coaching staff. Unlike Johnson, who surrounded themselves with the perfect coaching mix of new ideas and veteran savvy, he bet on first-timers. From the leader himself to assistants to assistant coaches, the Jaguars are filled with rookies. That kind of approach is intriguing in theory, but frequently fails in practice – with other teams are a warning – because everyone is learning a their job in real-time. But he has managed to bring the entire group and all elements into sync.

After an early hot beginning, there was a possibility that the season would veer off the track. A mid-year setback had the team wobbling once more. That's typically when leaders panic and change too much. He did not. Instead, he simplified the approach. Jacksonville stopped chasing explosive plays and started seeking consistent ones. Coen refocused the attack around key players and the ground attack, and encouraged Lawrence to use his mobility more.

The outcomes are evident. The Jaguars have won multiple games consecutively and will be the conference's number three playoff seed. Coen gets the tiniest knock in the rankings because he inherited a talented roster, but he has demonstrated he can maximize that roster.

3) Mike Macdonald, His Team, Their Record

Each Coach of the Year narrative has a defining moment. For Mike Macdonald, it was his QB decision.

Moving on from a veteran, bringing in a different signal-caller and partnering him with an innovative play-caller could have derailed the campaign in the early weeks. Instead, it defined it. Through the middle point of the year, the acquisition was an Most Valuable Player candidate. He has fallen away after that hot streak, slipping to a lower rank in EPA per pass attempt over the second half of the schedule, putting him only one place ahead of peers.

Still