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Entering the world’s most-visited art institution in broad daylight, grabbing eight items of invaluable historical gems and disappearing into the city traffic on humble scooters may seem like the most audacious of crimes, executed for global fame and ensuing movie adaptations.

Experts who observe trends in global cultural theft, however, see the recent robbery at the Louvre as a more practical matter: the latest in a series of quick-hit thefts centered more on the monetary worth of valuable gems or metals than the historical importance, continuing a trend that has appeared over the last decade in Germany, Britain and the US. The venue, they propose, would have been of secondary concern to the criminals.

“One might wonder why criminals who want to take expensive jewellery are entering a world-famous museum rather than a luxury jewelry store,” stated Christopher A Marinello. “It's straightforward: it’s because these days a Cartier store is more secure.”

A spate of violent retail store thefts mean that many outlets have strengthened their protection in the past few years, with security personnel on their premises and wares no longer kept on display overnight. Cultural institutions, on the other hand, look more exposed, partly because of the in-built reason of being accessible institutions in historic buildings, and partly the current economic climate in many developed nations.

“Since Covid, governments across the globe have cut back on law enforcement and the culture sector,” noted Marinello. “If thieves can get into the Louvre, it demonstrates how at risk our institutions have become. This is a difficult time to be a museum.”

The robbery of the items – featuring necklaces made up of eight sapphires and 631 diamonds, the crown of Empress Eugénie featuring thousands of diamonds and a hugely valuable crown once possessed by a royal that the robbers left by the roadside on their way out – has naturally been compared with the 1911 theft of the Mona Lisa from the Louvre, performed by the Italian handyman the thief.

Better comparisons may be the 2019 theft of jewellery from Dresden’s Green Vault Museum worth over €113m, the theft of a £4.75m gold toilet from a UK landmark the that year, the 2017 robbery of a large gold coin from a European museum or even a series of thefts of sports memorabilia from US mining museums.

“It's a clear trend here,” explained Marinello. “Break in, take items, and dismantle them as rapidly as possible.”

If the items were to remain intact, experts say, the criminals would find it hard to find a buyer. “It's impossible to sell something as recognizable as the museum's gems on the legal marketplace”, commented Lynda Albertson of the Association for Research into Crimes against Art.

“They are too well-known, particularly given the Ministry of Culture has released images of the items. Even a individual buyer or an auction house would want to see paperwork establishing proper ownership before touching such striking pieces.”

In the previous years, museums were often hesitant to go public about the disappearance of well-known works of art and would stay silent out of shame. Now, as art thefts are more reported on, the keeping and sale of taken items is risky business for any lawbreaker.

“Taking a famous painting, it has to stay complete or it becomes worthless, and you have to conceive of a scheme to keep it in hiding, maybe by moving it among difficult criminal actors,” said Marinello. “And you’re constantly exposed to the danger of an accomplice informing authorities to collect a reward.”

For similar reasons, an art detective said it was vanishingly unlikely that the robbery had been ordered. “Commissioned theft is something from Hollywood movies,” he said. “Nobody would touch this. It’s all around the world and in all the media. If you buy this, if you are apprehended, you end up in prison. You cannot show it to your friends, you cannot leave it to your children.”

Modifying taken items by dismantling or re-cutting does reduce the value. When it comes to diamonds, it also comes with significant danger because contemporary cutting techniques give stones a larger and lighter surface area, and antique-cut stones would either draw unwanted attention or reduce value for a concealment.

Importantly, however, melting down or re-cutting removes the evidence of the crime. “I suspect that the robbers will try to bring the stolen goods to locations with diamond expertise like Israel, India or even as close as Antwerp, and find someone to cut out the gems,” said Marinello.

The heist at the Louvre has already brought up concerns about protective steps at the museum, with a leaked official review expected to be published next month criticising “considerable” and “persistent” slow progress in modernizing equipment and noting that security cameras were lacking in many rooms. But specialists say showing valuable objects in older structures with a steady stream of visitors comes with dangers that are not possible to eliminate completely.

“Older structures are more difficult to secure,” said an art crime professor. “They often have nice big street-facing windows that makes it easy for criminals to escape, and there may be preservation laws in place that mean you are unable to install them with proper bulletproof glass.”

The most solid security systems for structures should be conceptualised “as a stronghold”, noted a security advisor. “There should be several layers to deter attackers.”

Contemporary structures are equipped with advanced surveillance systems or in-built vibration sensors that raise alarm about a smashed window in immediately, but old museums may be hesitant to uglify their exteriors. Laser scanners can be difficult to fit to stuccoed ceilings. Sensors may also have to be disabled during the daytime as crowds walk through a museum.

The schedule of the robbery, which occurred between 9.30am and 9.40am in Paris, was common of recent thefts, Stürmann said. “There’s a good reason why thefts tend to happen at either start or end of day. Frequently when security rotate and before the museum is full of visitors who actually act as additional security staff.”

Technological progress may have introduced new devices that can notify more quickly and efficiently, but it has also given robbers new tools with which to circumvent security measures. In Paris, the robbers reached the museum’s upper level with a vehicle-mounted ladder and cut through a window with a battery-powered disc cutter.

An author said the conversation in France about the 232-year-old structure had primarily centered on visitor management in recent years, and less on security.

The institution has an on-site brigade of about fifty permanent emergency personnel, but their mission is mostly to safeguard the artworks from fires and water damage. “There isn't a quick reaction team,” Sciolino said. “In the end, the safety of the Louvre all depends on government support and money, and currently France lacks sufficient money.”