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Residents of the Big Apple will learn who will be their next mayor this Tuesday, in a contest that will determine who runs and protects the nation's largest city at a time when Donald Trump has vowed to deploy armed forces to the urban center.

Against that backdrop, New York has witnessed a race for mayor that has pitted two distinctly opposing Democrats against each other. The contest has turned into an acrimonious face-off, marked by accusations of racial bias and Islamophobia, but it is the ideological divide between the two main contenders that could have significant consequences for how the Democratic party fares in next year's congressional races.

The Progressive Challenger

On the left side is Zohran Mamdani, the young progressive candidate whose meteoric rise and grassroots campaign has attracted global notice. On the establishment side is the former governor, the ex- New York governor now campaigning independently – and enjoying the backing of wealthy contributors and big business.

As the election approaches, it is the progressive, the former longshot who beat Cuomo in the Democratic primary who is solidly positioned as the leading candidate. Mamdani, who has campaigned on a platform of affordability and promised to halt rent increases for about two million city residents, has outpaced Cuomo by double-digits in every poll conducted in October, and it is very much the progressive's race to lose.

The Controversial Campaign

Yet, the former governor, who stepped down as governor in 2021 amid allegations of sexual harassment, has stated clearly he will fight to the finish, and not necessarily in an above-the-belt manner. He has criticized his opponent's objectives as unachievable, and in the final stretch laughed as a radio host made anti-Muslim comments about Mamdani, who is a Muslim. Two weeks ago, the independent was strongly criticized as bigoted after sharing an AI-generated ad that featured a slew of racist stereotypes and showed his opponent releasing a group of criminals.

It's been a rather grubby end to an election that could be critical to the path that the Democratic party, struggling in its reaction to the former president's power moves, takes in the coming years.

Broader Consequences

Should the progressive wins convincingly, the party establishment who have refused to endorse his campaign will be compelled to address a message that has appealed to Americans' frustration at inequality, inflation and the establishment. It would be difficult for the Senate leader and Hakeem Jeffries not to adopt at least a portion of Mamdani's progressive proposals about affordability, given the newcomer has generated an enthusiasm within the Democratic ranks arguably not seen since Bernie Sanders ran for president eight years ago.

However, should Cuomo, who had been expected to sail to victory in the June primary, complete a surprising riches-to-rags-to-riches win, it could reinforce national Democrats' existing approach of considered, uninspiring opposition – a strategy that has infuriated the party base. A New York rejection of Mamdani's progressive, positive message could persuade party leaders that the wisest course is to remain in the political center – even as polls show the present version of the party is widely disliked across the country.

Campaign Energy

Residents of the city seem to prefer the Mamdani vision. Polls show that his backers are far more enthusiastic about their candidate than Cuomo backers, something that has been evident throughout the campaign. Mamdani's snappy videos on social media, his optimistic vision for New York and his readiness to actually get out and meet people in the city has drawn an army of more than 50,000 volunteers, many of them youth or first-time voters.

Negative Tactics

However, Cuomo, in his late sixties, isn't giving up. And with the stakes stacked against him, the former governor has resorted to negative campaigning in the final days.

Following extensive launching various attacks at Mamdani to see what might stick, Cuomo has narrowed his focus on targeting the candidate directly. He has called his rival, who was of Ugandan origin to Indian parents, an "radical", and popped up on Fox Business for an interview with a rightwing host, where the candidate asserted New York “will not survive” his opponent as city leader. It hit bottom recently, when the former governor chuckled and said “that’s another problem” after a broadcaster said the candidate would “cheer” another 9/11-style incident.

Political Landscape

The line of attack mirrors much of what Trump, who has deployed the military reserves to the capital and threatened to take similar action to NYC, has said about the progressive, and maybe that shouldn’t come as a surprise. A set of wealthy residents, including some who donated to the Republican in the 2024 election, have pumped millions into trying to get Cuomo elected, as other influential figures have urged the Republican candidate to drop out from the contest.

Candidate Backgrounds

For the Cuomo camp, and his wealthy backers, are worried, it should not have reached to this point. When Mamdani, one of one hundred fifty state legislators, launched his mayoral bid in last year, not many had heard of him, and in truth, few even paid attention.

Cuomo, by comparison, eased his way into the contest in this year and became the immediate frontrunner. He was the big beast who seemingly held all the advantages. The classic political insider, he had wed a Kennedy and served in a Democratic presidency. He became the state's leader in over a decade ago, 17 years after his father, Mario Cuomo, left office from the identical role.

Mamdani, who was voted in to the New York state assembly in 2020, does not have the same political heritage. But his commitment to providing no-cost transit and free childcare – along with the freeze-the-rent pledge – offer a brighter outlook of the city's direction than Cuomo’s dire warnings about “mayhem” and rising criminal activity, and his vow to hire more police officers.

Campaign Controversies

Nevertheless, the candidate has encountered some challenges in the final phase, after video surfaced appearing to show him suggesting the New York police department and the IDF were connected.

“We have to make clear that when the pressure of the NYPD is on your neck, it’s been laced by the IDF,” Mamdani said in the recording, recorded at a Democratic Socialists of America gathering in recent years. The progressive, a longtime critic of the Israeli government who has said the nation is engaging in atrocities in the Palestinian territory, indicated he was questioning joint training exercises between the NYPD and IDF.

Emotional Response

As the race closes, Mamdani appears to have won sympathy and support, however, for his response to his opponent's escalating attacks.

Mamdani responded to Cuomo’s 9/11 remarks in an emotional video. In it, the candidate recalled how, when he first ran for state assembly, a Muslim uncle suggested to him that he did not have to disclose about his Muslim faith. It was a realization, Mamdani said, that many Muslim New Yorkers had been told “again and again”: “That safety could only be found in the shadows of our community. That it is in those hidden spaces alone where Muslims could express their true selves, and that if we were to emerge from those shadows, then it is in those silence that we must leave our beliefs.”

Addressing the behavior of his opponents, who has claimed Mamd